Much-hyped NOAA Coastal Impact Percentage Model only forecasts up to Day 120 of the BP Oil Disaster


Deepwater Horizon: Statistical Modeling, NOAA, July 2010:

The modeling is based on a 120-day projection starting from day one of the spill. ...

The model predicts the location of oil after 120 days from the start. ...

Oil movement could continue beyond the 120-day time frame used in the model runs.

July 7 is Day 78 of the BP Oil Disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. 120 is 42 days from now.

Therefore, NOAA's model predicts the chance oil will hit a certain area by August 18, 2010.

What does NOAA forecast will happen to the remaining oil in the Gulf that has yet to make landfall by August 18?

Is the crude anticipated to disappear, with no further coastal impacts?

Color-coded map showing the probability of Shoreline Threat, as of Day 120, for a 33,000 barrels/day release for 90 days.

1 comment to Much-hyped NOAA Coastal Impact Percentage Model only forecasts up to Day 120 of the BP Oil Disaster

  • jec

    Note the PUBLISH date--4/22/2010. Days after the massive accident. Note the volume, 33,000 barrels a day. Yes, only 120 day forecast, and day 90 of the BP Oil Spill. NOAA had possible volume of flow data (still under actual flow) but better than 1000 or 5000 barrels a day. The question is not IF there is a coverup,the question is why...

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