Deepwater Horizon: Statistical Modeling, NOAA, July 2010:
The modeling is based on a 120-day projection starting from day one of the spill. ...
The model predicts the location of oil after 120 days from the start. ...
Oil movement could continue beyond the 120-day time frame used in the model runs.
July 7 is Day 78 of the BP Oil Disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. 120 is 42 days from now.
Therefore, NOAA's model predicts the chance oil will hit a certain area by August 18, 2010.
What does NOAA forecast will happen to the remaining oil in the Gulf that has yet to make landfall by August 18?
Is the crude anticipated to disappear, with no further coastal impacts?