NOAA admits Threat Models “do not start with the current footprint of the spill, but rather model the spill beginning at day one”

NOAA Models Long-Term Oil Threat to Gulf and East Coast Shoreline, NOAA, July 2, 2010:

NOAA Model

If, for example, 250 of the 500 scenarios indicated a shoreline threat for a particular area, the overall threat for that area would be a 50 percent probability. …

[T]he Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a greater probability (61 to 80 percent) due to the potential influence of the Loop Current. …

The modeling results released today are based on several simplifying assumptions. In particular, they do not start with the current [July 2] footprint of the spill, but rather model the spill beginning at day one, based on historical weather and current patterns.

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