NOAA admits Threat Models “do not start with the current footprint of the spill, but rather model the spill beginning at day one”


NOAA Models Long-Term Oil Threat to Gulf and East Coast Shoreline, NOAA, July 2, 2010:

NOAA Model

If, for example, 250 of the 500 scenarios indicated a shoreline threat for a particular area, the overall threat for that area would be a 50 percent probability. ...

[T]he Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a greater probability (61 to 80 percent) due to the potential influence of the Loop Current. ...

The modeling results released today are based on several simplifying assumptions. In particular, they do not start with the current [July 2] footprint of the spill, but rather model the spill beginning at day one, based on historical weather and current patterns.

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